MRR Forecast vs. Actuals & Commit Pipeline
ScaleOps Infrastructure SaaS · $68M ARR · Target MAPE: <4.5%
Commit Slippage Rate
14.2%
Pipeline MRR (Commit)
$2.4M
90-day weighted
Unmodeled Expansion
$340K
Early Churn vs Forecast
$124K
Forecast Bias
-2.1%
Under-forecasting trend
EMEA Pipeline at Risk
$890K
Model Recalibration
On Track
Bias <3% threshold
MRR Forecast vs. Actuals (Q2 2024)
Forecast Error by Segment
Commit Slippage Rate (6 Months)
Pipeline MRR in Commit Stage (Top Deals)
| Deal Name |
Segment |
MRR |
Close Probability |
Expected Close |
Risk Factor |
Status |
| TechCorp Global |
Enterprise |
$180K |
85% |
Jun 15 |
Low |
On Track |
| DataFlow EMEA |
Enterprise |
$320K |
60% |
Jun 28 |
High |
At Risk |
| CloudScale Mid |
Mid-Market |
$92K |
75% |
Jun 22 |
Medium |
Monitoring |
| SecureNet Partners |
Enterprise |
$210K |
90% |
Jun 10 |
Low |
On Track |
| InfraOps APAC |
Mid-Market |
$145K |
70% |
Jun 18 |
Medium |
Monitoring |
| DevTools Euro |
Enterprise |
$390K |
55% |
Jun 30 |
High |
At Risk |
| MetricFlow SMB |
SMB |
$48K |
80% |
Jun 12 |
Low |
On Track |
| AutoScale Platform |
Mid-Market |
$118K |
65% |
Jun 25 |
Medium |
Monitoring |
Monthly Variance Analysis (Q2 2024)
| Month |
Forecast MRR |
Actual MRR |
Variance |
MAPE |
Unmodeled Expansion |
Early Churn |
Primary Driver |
| April 2024 |
$5.82M |
$5.91M |
+$90K |
4.2% |
$145K |
$55K |
Enterprise expansion |
| May 2024 |
$5.95M |
$5.88M |
-$70K |
5.6% |
$82K |
$152K |
SMB churn spike |
| June 2024 |
$6.12M |
$5.78M |
-$340K |
7.1% |
$113K |
$453K |
EMEA commit slippage |