Oryndex Supply Chain Platform • Active Customers: 1,650 • ARR: $41.2M
ARR concentration across predicted churn likelihood — decile 10 = 90-100% churn probability
Accounts sized by predicted LTV — upper-right quadrant = high-confidence upsell targets
Behavioral clusters: Enterprise Power Users, Mid-Market Growth, SMB Stable, SMB At-Risk
Current ARR → Churn Impact → Expansion → Predicted Portfolio Value ($38.4M)
Sorted by Revenue Risk Score (RRS) — October 2024 renewals flagged
| Account | ARR | RRS | Churn Prob | Predicted LTV | CS Coverage | Renewal Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GlobalTech Industries | $387,000 | 94 | 87% | $112,400 | Assigned | Oct 2024 |
| Velocity Logistics | $284,000 | 91 | 82% | $95,300 | Assigned | Oct 2024 |
| Midwest Supply Co | $219,000 | 88 | 79% | $78,200 | Pending | Oct 2024 |
| Apex Manufacturing | $197,000 | 86 | 76% | $71,100 | Assigned | Nov 2024 |
| PrecisionParts LLC | $178,000 | 83 | 74% | $64,800 | Pending | Oct 2024 |
| Summit Distribution | $164,000 | 81 | 71% | $59,700 | Assigned | Sep 2024 |
| Frontier Warehouse Group | $152,000 | 79 | 68% | $55,400 | Unassigned | Oct 2024 |
| Cascade Materials | $143,000 | 78 | 67% | $52,100 | Assigned | Oct 2024 |
| Quantum Freight Services | $138,000 | 76 | 65% | $50,300 | Pending | Nov 2024 |
| Pacific Chain Solutions | $129,000 | 75 | 63% | $47,000 | Assigned | Oct 2024 |
| Total (Top 10) | $1,991,000 | — | — | $686,300 | 7/10 | — |
8-quarter historical pCPV with expansion/churn impact overlay
ARR in high/critical risk bands (RRS >70) per quarter
Percentage of high-risk ARR with assigned CSM — target 95%
Acquisition efficiency — ratios below 2.5x flagged for review
Mean Absolute Percentage Error — Q1 2024 model retrain reduced MAPE from 24.1% to 14.8%