Expansion & Upsell Forecast Intelligence

Luminary Data Corp • Q3 Review • 7 Weeks to Close

Current NRR: 109% Target: 118%
Pipeline Coverage
2.4×
vs 3.2× target
Utilization Trigger Rate
34%
vs 55% target
Upsell Conv Rate
42%
+6pp QoQ
Cross-Sell Attach
28%
+3pp QoQ
Expansion Quota
$8.2M
$6.8M open
Forecast Accuracy
76%
-4pp vs Q2

Net Revenue Retention Waterfall (Q3 YTD)

Cross-Sell Attach Rate by Cohort

Analytics+
API Pro
DataOps
Security
Enterprise
48%
36%
22%
41%
Mid-Market
31%
24%
14%
28%
Cohort 2024
18%
12%
8%
16%
Cohort 2023
42%
34%
21%
35%

Time-to-Expansion by Trigger Source

Pipeline Coverage
Target: 3.2×
Product Utilization Trend
Churn-Adjusted NRR Impact
Expansion Contribution +12.4%
Contraction Impact -3.4%
Net NRR 109%

Expansion Candidate Watchlist (Top 10 by ARR Potential)

Account Current ARR Expansion Opp Utilization Renewal Date Health Score Trigger Owner Risk
Novasteel Corp $890K $420K 92% 61 days 68 Seat Limit Sarah Chen (CSM) HIGH
Prism Analytics $720K $380K 88% 104 days 82 API Quota Marcus Liu (AE) MED
Zenith Manufacturing $650K $310K 81% 89 days 76 Cross-Sell Emma Torres (CSM) LOW
Quantum Logistics $580K $290K 85% 127 days 79 Usage Spike James Park (AE) LOW
Meridian Financial $510K $260K 79% 72 days 71 Seat Limit Rachel Kim (CSM) MED
Nexus Healthcare $480K $240K 74% 156 days 84 Cross-Sell David Brown (AE) LOW
Vertex Energy $440K $220K 86% 98 days 77 API Quota Lisa Wang (CSM) LOW
Catalyst Biotech $410K $200K 69% 183 days 88 Cross-Sell Tom Anderson (AE) LOW

Upsell Conversion Funnel by Product Line

Expansion Forecast Accuracy (CSM vs AE)

Competitive Expansion Win Rate
vs Legacy (Oracle/SAP) 68%
vs Modern (Snowflake) 52%
vs In-House 41%
Avg Deal Cycle Time
42 days (current)
Renewal Risk Concentration
High Risk Accounts 8
At-Risk ARR $2.4M
% of Total ARR 5.5%
Coverage Alert
2.4× below target 3.2× — need $5.2M additional pipeline by end of month to hit NRR goal.
Novasteel Corp Risk
$890K account at 92% utilization, renewal in 61 days, health score 68. CSM escalation required.
CSM Trigger Opportunity
34% CSM trigger rate vs 55% target. Focus on API quota alerts for 18 high-utilization accounts.