Cohort Churn Analysis & Retention Curves

Veloxa Supply Chain • $28M ARR • 340 Customers

Track cohort-specific retention patterns, vintage decay slopes, and channel quality to identify acquisition sources and product changes driving attrition.

North Star

85%

12-mo Cohort Retention Target

12-Month Retention

81%

+3pp vs Q4

Avg Decay Slope

0.12

Worsening

Churn Accel Month

Median across vintages

Q1 2025 Cohort

78%

-3pp vs target

Channel Spread

2.4×

Best vs worst channel

LTV at Risk

$890K

12-month projection

Cohort Retention Curves (12 Months)

Q3 2023 cohort shows steepest decay (12% contraction in month 9 post-pricing change). Recent vintages stabilizing after month 7 intervention playbook.

Vintage × Month Retention Heatmap

Channel Decay Index (vs Baseline 1.0×)

Partner channel retains 89% at 12mo vs paid search 71%. Recommend reallocating $120K/mo from search to partner co-marketing.

10 Worst-Performing Cohorts

Cohort	Channel	Start Logos	12-mo Retention	Decay Slope	LTV at Risk	Key Driver
Q3 2023	Paid Search	42	67%	0.18	$214K	Pricing change
Q4 2023	Paid Search	38	71%	0.16	$156K	Low onboarding
Q2 2024	Display Ads	29	72%	0.15	$98K	Feature gap
Q1 2024	Paid Social	34	74%	0.14	$112K	Mismatch ICP
Q3 2024	Paid Search	31	76%	0.13	$89K	Integration delay
Q1 2023	Display Ads	26	77%	0.12	$67K	Support load
Q2 2023	Paid Social	28	78%	0.11	$54K	Competitive loss
Q4 2022	Paid Search	33	78%	0.11	$71K	Economic headwinds
Q1 2025	Paid Search	36	78%	0.10	$92K	Early signal
Q3 2022	Display Ads	24	79%	0.10	$37K	Macro conditions

Survivor vs Churned Feature Adoption

Churned accounts show 38% lower API usage and 52% lower mobile app adoption vs survivors.

Release Date vs Cohort Decay Slope

Sept 2023 pricing change correlates with elevated decay across Q3-Q4 cohorts. New UI release (Mar 2024) shows neutral impact.

Cohort LTV at Risk Waterfall (12-Month Projection)

Total at-risk LTV: $890K. Intervention playbook targeting month-4 to month-7 window could recover estimated $312K ARR.