Cash Flow & Liquidity Intelligence

Meridian Packaging Solutions • Updated Dec 23, 2024

13-Wk Forecast Accuracy

87.3%

+2.1pp

Cash Conversion Cycle

58d

+5d QoQ

DSO (All Tiers)

42d

+3d

DPO (Actual)

36d

vs 45d terms

Liquidity Coverage

1.82x

+0.14x

OCF Conversion

76%

+4pp

13-Week Cash Forecast Waterfall

Current Balance: $4.2M

Week 9 dip to $1.8M due to lease payment ($480K) + bulk materials ($1.1M)

CCC Decomposition (Days)

DPO vs. Payment Terms by Vendor Category

AR Aging Heatmap by Customer Tier

Current

1-30d

31-60d

61-90d

90+d

Enterprise

$2.1M

$0.8M

$0.2M

$0.0M

Mid-Market

$1.6M

$1.2M

$0.4M

$0.1M

$0.0M

SMB

$0.9M

$0.7M

$0.5M

$0.3M

$0.2M

SMB tier shows $0.5M (19%) in 31+ day buckets — collection policy changed Aug 2024 driving deterioration

Liquidity Scenario Fan (13 Weeks)

Debt Covenant Headroom

Net Debt / EBITDA 2.1x / 3.5x

40% headroom to covenant

Interest Coverage 6.8x / 3.0x

Safe margin

Min Liquidity $4.2M / $2.0M

W9 dip to $1.8M approaches threshold

Operating Cash Flow Conversion Bridge (Q4 2024)

Weekly Cash Flow Detail (Next 8 Weeks)

Week	Forecast Inflow	Forecast Outflow	Net	Ending Balance	Confidence
W1	$1,820K	$1,650K	+$170K	$4,370K	High
W2	$1,640K	$1,580K	+$60K	$4,430K	High
W3	$1,710K	$1,520K	+$190K	$4,620K	Med
W4	$1,550K	$1,680K	-$130K	$4,490K	Med
W5	$1,690K	$1,610K	+$80K	$4,570K	Med
W6	$1,600K	$1,740K	-$140K	$4,430K	Med
W7	$1,530K	$1,620K	-$90K	$4,340K	Low
W9	$1,450K	$2,880K	-$1,430K	$1,800K	Critical

W9 outflow spike: $480K lease + $1,100K bulk materials + $1,300K regular AP

WACF Breakdown

Blended Rate

4.8%

Free Cash Flow Yield

9.2%

TTM FCF $8.0M / Revenue $87M

+1.4pp YoY

Net Debt Position

$28.4M

Debt $32.6M - Cash $4.2M

2.1x Rolling EBITDA