Churn Revenue Impact & NRR Defense Forecasting

RetainFlow | $47M ARR | Q4 Retention Target Tracking

NRR (Baseline)
104.2%
+2.1%
GRR
91.4%
-0.6%
Target: 92%
Forecast Churn (90d)
$420K
+8.3%
vs. prior 90d
Save Pipeline Coverage
1.4×
Healthy
Min target: 1.2×
Target Attainment Prob
78%
Monitor
NRR ≥110%
Churn Budget Variance
3.2%
Within Target
Target: <5%

NRR Scenario Projections

NRR Target Attainment Probability

78% probability to hit ≥110% NRR

Churn Budget vs. Actual (Monthly)

Forecast Accuracy by Period

Churn Velocity Trend

Expansion Offset Required for NRR Target

Q4 Renewal Concentration by Month

Month Renewal ARR % of Total ARR Account Count Avg Contract Risk Rating Save Pipeline
Oct 2024 $15.98M 34.0% 187 $85K High $1.92M
Nov 2024 $8.46M 18.0% 124 $68K Med $1.01M
Dec 2024 $7.05M 15.0% 98 $72K Low $780K
Jan 2025 $6.11M 13.0% 89 $69K Low $670K
Feb 2025 $4.23M 9.0% 61 $69K Low $510K
Mar 2025 $5.17M 11.0% 76 $68K Med $620K