AR Payment Behavior & Concentration Intelligence

Horizon Logistics Partners — 95 Enterprise Shippers

Behavior Stability Index
0.87
vs. 0.91 benchmark
Chronic Cohort Exposure
$7.1M
+$0.7M vs. target
Early-Pay DSO Saved
3.8
days @ 1.1% discount
Top-20 AR Concentration
68%
$34.2M of $50.3M
Auto-Pay Enrollment
42%
+8% QoQ
Payment Failure Rate
2.3%
ACH returns & bounces
Forecast MAPE
6.2%
4-week rolling

Customer Payment Behavior Cohort Distribution

28
Early Payers
<20 days avg
41
Term Payers
20-35 days
18
Late Payers
36-60 days
8
Chronic Delinquent
>60 days avg

Chronic Delinquent Cohort — $7.1M Exposure

TransGlobal Migrated from Term to Late Cohort
$4.2M exposure — avg. payment 47 days (was 31 days in Q4)
TransGlobal $4,200,000
Cascade Freight $1,380,000
Alpine Distribution $720,000
NextGen Wholesale $480,000
Other (4 customers) $320,000
Cohort Metrics
Avg. Days to Pay 68
Payment Variance 1.42
Auto-Pay Rate 12%
Failure Rate 8.1%

Payment Behavior Cohort Migration — Last 90 Days

5 customers migrated to worse cohorts
Trigger credit review for TransGlobal, Cascade, Alpine
3 customers improved cohort
Credit limit increase candidates

Days-to-Pay Variance by Customer (Stability Index)

Variance over last 6 invoices — lower is more predictable

Top-20 Revenue & AR Concentration

68% of AR in top 20 customers — moderate concentration risk

Customer Payment Behavior Analysis

Customer Cohort AR Balance Avg. Days Variance Auto-Pay Failure % Trend
TransGlobal Chronic $4,200,000 47 1.68 No 6.2% ↓ Worsening
Continental Carriers Term $3,800,000 29 0.42 Yes 0.8% → Stable
Midwest Shipping Co Early $2,900,000 16 0.28 Yes 0.3% ↑ Improving
Pacific Freight Group Term $2,600,000 31 0.58 Yes 1.2% → Stable
Cascade Freight Chronic $1,380,000 72 1.94 No 11.3% ↓ Worsening
Summit Logistics Early $1,120,000 14 0.35 Yes 0.5% → Stable
Horizon Transport Late $980,000 42 1.12 No 3.8% → Stable
Alpine Distribution Chronic $720,000 65 1.58 No 7.9% ↓ Worsening
River Valley Express Term $680,000 28 0.48 Yes 1.1% → Stable
Metro Freight Services Early $620,000 18 0.31 Yes 0.6% ↑ Improving

Early Payment Discount Program ROI

Net benefit: $184K annual (3.8 DSO × $12.3M avg AR × 4.8% WACC − $140K discount cost)

Payment Method Mix & Failure Rate

Seasonal Payment Pattern

Deviation score: 0.34 — moderate seasonality

Cash Application Match Rate

94.2%
Auto-matched on first pass
Auto-matched 94.2%
Manual review 4.6%
Exceptions 1.2%

Auto-Pay Delinquency Lift

-28%
Lower delinquency vs. manual
Auto-Pay DPO 24.6
Manual Pay DPO 34.1

Behavior-Adjusted Cash Receipt Forecast — 4-Week Rolling

Cohort-weighted projection vs. aging-only baseline — 6.2% MAPE (target: 5%)

Forecast Accuracy Trend

Payment history ETL last run: 2024-01-15 06:42 UTC
Data refresh: Daily at 06:30 UTC | Behavior cohort recalc: Weekly Sunday