Cash Flow Scenario Planning & Stress-Test

Meridian Industrial Components LLC · 13-Week Forward Liquidity Model

22% BREACH RISK Model run: 2024-01-15 08:42 EST

Base Scenario W13

$8.4M

+23% vs today

Bear Scenario W13

$3.2M

-53% vs today

Bull Scenario W13

$11.1M

+63% vs today

Monte Carlo Breach

22%

Above 15% alert threshold

Liquidity Buffer Ratio

1.8x

(Cash+Undrawn)/90d Outflows

Revolver Headroom

$8.5M

Available of $15M facility

13-Week Scenario Cash Trajectories

Bull Base Bear

Critical Risk: Bear scenario breaches $5M covenant floor in weeks 10-12 due to Rexford Automotive net-60 extension ($2.1M AR delay).

DSO Sensitivity Band (±15 Days)

Current DSO: 42 days · Range: 27-57 days · Week 6 spike: Rexford payment shift

Covenant Headroom Compression

Minimum cash covenant: $5.0M · Bear scenario margin: $200K in W10

Bear vs. Base Scenario Delta Waterfall (W13)

Capex Deferral Impact

Cumulative cash release: $1.8M by W13

Payables Extension (45→60d)

One-time cash benefit: $1.2M in W4

Revenue Stress Multipliers

70%, 85%, 100% collection scenarios

Monte Carlo Covenant Breach Distribution (1,000 Simulations)

P90: $7.2M (safe)

P50: $5.8M (caution)

P10: $4.1M (breach)

Week-by-Week Covenant & Facility Detail

Week	Base Cash	Bear Cash	Covenant Floor	Bear Headroom	Revolver Drawn	Status
W0	$6.8M	$6.8M	$5.0M	+$1.8M	$6.5M	Safe
W1	$7.1M	$6.5M	$5.0M	+$1.5M	$6.5M	Safe
W2	$7.4M	$6.2M	$5.0M	+$1.2M	$6.5M	Safe
W3	$7.6M	$5.9M	$5.0M	+$0.9M	$6.5M	Caution
W6	$8.0M	$4.8M	$5.0M	-$0.2M	$6.5M	Risk
W10	$8.2M	$5.2M	$5.0M	+$0.2M	$6.5M	Risk
W11	$8.3M	$4.9M	$5.0M	-$0.1M	$6.5M	Breach
W12	$8.4M	$5.1M	$5.0M	+$0.1M	$6.5M	Risk
W13	$8.4M	$3.2M	$5.0M	-$1.8M	$6.5M	Breach

Revolver Utilization

Total Facility: $15.0M

Drawn: $6.5M (43%)

Available: $8.5M

Rate: SOFR + 2.75%

Recommended Mitigation Actions

URGENT: Pre-draw Revolver by W8

Draw $2.5M cushion before Bear scenario breach window (W10-12). Cost: ~$18K in additional interest vs. covenant waiver risk.

Accelerate Rexford AR Collection

Negotiate 2% early-pay discount to pull $1.0M forward from net-60 to net-30. NPV-positive vs. breach scenario.

Defer Q1 Capex ($1.8M)

Delay CNC mill upgrade from W5 to Q2. Minimal production impact; releases $1.8M cumulative cash by W13.

Extend Payables to Net-60

Negotiate with top 5 suppliers for 15-day extension. One-time $1.2M cash benefit in W4 with minimal relationship risk.