Customer Churn & Retention Risk Forecast

Model: XGBoost v2.4 | Retrained: 6 weeks ago | Next Refresh: 3 days | Coverage: 4,200 accounts, $38M ARR

Predicted ARR at Risk (90-day)
$2.84M
+18% vs. last period
High-Risk Accounts (>70%)
142
34% of monitored base
Median Days to Predicted Churn
38
Sufficient intervention window
Model Precision @ 70% Threshold
0.72
+0.04 improvement
Avg. Intervention ROI Score
4.2x
Expected revenue saved / CSM cost
FinServ Segment Churn Lift
+42%
Sponsor change wave detected

Churn Probability Score Distribution

Predicted ARR at Risk Trend

Behavioral Decay Index (7-day MA)

Top At-Risk Accounts (>70% Churn Probability)

Account Name ARR Churn Prob. Days to Churn Segment ROI Score Top Driver
CloudBridge Corp $180,000 84% 12 Enterprise 5.8x Login frequency ↓68%
NovaPay $95,000 78% 19 FinServ 4.9x Sponsor change
RetailFlow $62,000 71% 24 Retail 3.7x Feature adoption ↓52%
DataSync Solutions $145,000 82% 16 Enterprise 6.2x Support ticket spike +230%
FinEdge Analytics $78,000 76% 22 FinServ 4.1x API usage ↓74%
LogiChain Partners $52,000 73% 28 Logistics 3.4x Seat utilization ↓61%
HealthTech Innovations $110,000 80% 14 Healthcare 5.5x Escalation to exec
MarketPulse Inc $68,000 74% 26 Marketing 3.9x Export frequency ↓59%

Cohort Survival Rate: Model vs. Actual

Segment Churn Lift (vs. Baseline)

Feature Importance (SHAP Values)

Intervention ROI Score by Segment

Model Precision/Recall Tradeoff Curve