Lease Renewal Pipeline Intelligence

Harborline Residential · June 2025 · 847 Total Units

Portfolio Renewal Rate (T90)
67.3%
90-Day ARR at Risk
$1.85M
112 units expiring
Avg Renewal Probability
68.4%
↑ 2.3% vs T180
Market Rent Gap
+6.2%
Wtd avg at expiration
Avg Days to Decision
47
↑ 6d vs target
Concession/Renewal
$384
Avg T90
Re-Lease Cost/Unit
$1,820
Turn + vacancy loss

12-Month Lease Roll Distribution & Concentration Index

Peak Month Concentration
0.17
Units Expiring
Concentration Index
0.12 Risk Threshold

Renewal Probability Distribution — Active Expirations

Score combines payment history, tenure, service requests, and market comp differential

Market Rent Gap by Unit Type — Expiring Leases

Positive gap = renewal pricing upside; negative = at-market or above

Expiring Lease Detail Table — Next 90 Days

Unit Property Expiration Type Current Rent Market Rent Gap Tier Prob % Status
312 Oakwood Commons Jul 15 2BR $2,280 $2,510 +10.1% A 84% Outreach Sent
127 Riverside Flats Jul 22 1BR $1,695 $1,780 +5.0% B 71% Pending
418 Meridian Terrace Aug 3 3BR $3,120 $3,050 -2.2% A 79% Renewed
208 Oakwood Commons Aug 11 2BR $2,390 $2,580 +7.9% B 66% Outreach Sent
519 Meridian Terrace Aug 19 Studio $1,420 $1,495 +5.3% C 52% High Risk
331 Riverside Flats Aug 28 2BR $2,195 $2,440 +11.2% A 88% Pending
614 Meridian Terrace Sep 4 1BR $1,750 $1,810 +3.4% B 74% Outreach Sent
221 Oakwood Commons Sep 12 3BR $3,280 $3,220 -1.8% A 82% Pending

Tenant Quality Tier Mix — Expiring vs. Retained (T90)

Tier A: payment score 90+, tenure 18mo+, no violations. Tier C: delinquency or multiple service flags.

Renewal Rate by Property — Trailing 90-Day

Oakwood Commons
71.4%
Target: 70%
Riverside Flats
63.8%
Target: 70%
Meridian Terrace
58.2%
Below Threshold
Action Required: Meridian Terrace renewal rate has dropped below 60% threshold. Recommend deep-dive on concession strategy, property condition, and competitive set positioning.

90-Day Forward Vacancy Simulation

Best Case (80% renewal)
Expected (68% renewal)
Worst Case (55% renewal)

Lease Stagger Health — Rolling 12-Month Expiration Heatmap

Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Oakwood Commons
18
22
14
38
19
12
16
11
20
13
17
21
Riverside Flats
14
17
19
31
10
13
9
16
12
18
14
15
Meridian Terrace
11
13
16
25
18
10
12
8
14
11
19
15
Heat intensity = expiration count. October concentration (94 units, 11.1% of portfolio) exceeds 0.12 risk threshold.