Budget Variance & Forecast Deviation Analysis

Meridian Analytics Inc. • Q2 2024, Week 8 of 13 • Approved Opex: $29.6M • Current Run-Rate: $30.0M

Total Opex Variance
+$412K
+1.4%
Reforecast Bias Index
-3.2%
Systematic underestimate
Encumbrance Ratio
87.3%
On track
Variance Velocity
$51K/wk
Accelerating
Misclassification Rate
12.8%
One-time vs recurring
Rolling 3-Mo MAPE
6.7%
Improving

Cumulative Budget Variance by Week

Absolute Variance by Cost Center

Headcount-Driven Expense vs Plan Variance

Forecast MAPE by Department (8 Weeks)

Discretionary Spend Consumption

Cost Center Detail — Q2 W8 Snapshot

Cost Center Budget (Q2) Actuals (W8) Variance $ Variance % Forecast MAPE Status
Engineering $8,420K $8,760K +$340K +4.0% 8.2% Over
Sales $6,200K $6,140K -$60K -1.0% 4.8% Under
Marketing $4,800K $4,930K +$130K +2.7% 6.1% Watch
G&A $3,900K $3,880K -$20K -0.5% 3.9% On Track
Customer Success $3,200K $3,160K -$40K -1.3% 5.3% Under
Product $1,880K $1,940K +$60K +3.2% 7.4% Watch
R&D $1,200K $1,190K -$10K -0.8% 4.2% On Track

Variance Velocity Trend ($/week)

Capitalization Rate by Project Type

Infrastructure 68%
Product Features 42%
Platform Migration 89%
Internal Tools 15%
Security & Compliance 54%

One-Time vs Recurring

Accrual Reversal Accuracy

91.4%
Month-end accuracy
Perfect Match 73%
±5% Variance 18%
>5% Variance 9%

Reforecast Bias by Dept

Engineering -5.2%
Product -4.1%
Marketing -2.8%
Sales +1.2%
CS +0.8%
G&A -0.3%
Operating Expense Ratio
51.7%
Target: 50.2% (-150bps YoY)
Emergency Reallocation Events
3
Q2-to-date (vs 7 in Q1)
Headcount Plan Variance
+2.1%
9 unplanned hires in Engineering