Employee Engagement & Retention Risk Forecasting

NovaStar Insurance Group | 3,100 FTE | FY2025 Target: $4.2M Regrettable Attrition Cost Avoidance

Last Updated: Jan 15, 2025 08:00 EST Period: Q4 2024 → Q1 2025
High-Risk Employees
147
+65%
Regrettable Attrition
11.4%
+2.8pp
Intervention Coverage
42%
+18pp
Cost Exposure
$8.7M
+$3.2M
Manager NPS Avg
48
+4
Passive Signal Index
62
+0

Flight Risk by Cohort & Replacement Cost Exposure

Bubble size = replacement cost exposure. X-axis = avg flight risk score. Y-axis = cohort size.

Manager NPS Delta — Top & Bottom 5

Engagement Pulse Trend by BU

Tenure Risk Cliff

Voluntary attrition rate by tenure month

Onboarding Velocity

Avg engagement score trajectory: Day 30/60/90

Recognition Frequency

Per 100 employee-months, by manager

At-Risk Cohort Detail

Cohort Headcount Avg Flight Risk Cost Exposure Intervention Coverage Primary Risk Factor Risk Level
Engineering 13-24mo High-Performers 34 78 $1.39M 24% Manager NPS Delta -31 CRITICAL
Sales 14-18mo Mid-Performers 42 72 $1.82M 38% Skip-Level Trust NPS 22 CRITICAL
Claims 20-28mo High-Performers 28 69 $1.12M 57% Reorg Impact HIGH
Product 10-16mo All Levels 23 66 $0.94M 61% Passive Signal Index 71 HIGH
Underwriting 15-22mo High-Performers 20 63 $0.78M 45% Recognition Freq 1.2 MEDIUM
IT 12-20mo Mid-Performers 18 61 $0.69M 72% Engagement Pulse 58 MEDIUM
Finance 18-30mo All Levels 15 58 $0.51M 80% Compensation Gap -8% MEDIUM
HR 24-36mo High-Performers 12 55 $0.42M 83% Career Path Clarity LOW

Retention Intervention ROI by Program

Skip-Level Trust NPS vs Manager NPS

Units where skip-level < manager by 20+ indicate manager-dependency risk

Flight Risk Score Distribution — 6-Month Trend

Stacked area: Low (0-40), Medium (41-60), High (61-69), Critical (70+)

Passive Signal Index Components

Normalized 0-100 scale; composite score weighted average

Key Insights & Actions

CRITICAL: Engineering 13-24mo Cohort
34 high-performers, $1.39M exposure, only 24% intervention coverage. Manager K shows -31 NPS delta. Immediate 1:1 skip-level required.
HIGH: Sales Skip-Level Trust Gap
Direct Manager NPS 58 but Skip-Level 22 — manager-dependency pattern. Deploy peer mentorship + skip-level touchpoints Q1.
WATCH: 16-Month Tenure Cliff
Attrition rate spikes to 4.2% at month 16. Proactive career convo at month 14-15 for all high-performers in window.
WIN: Manager Coaching ROI 8.2x
Highest ROI intervention. Expand from 12 to 24 managers in Q1 2025, prioritize those with NPS delta < -15.