Customer Churn & Retention Risk Forecasting

Meridian SaaS • Model v2.3 (AUC-ROC 0.83) • Last Updated: Dec 19, 2024 08:42 UTC

Predicted Contraction MRR
$2.84M
+12.3% vs 60d
High-Risk Accounts
143
-9 vs last week
Churn prob >0.65
Portfolio Avg Churn Prob
0.38
+0.09 vs 6mo
30-day horizon
NRR (90-Day Rolling)
94.1%
+2.8pp recovery
From Aug low 91.3%
Model Lift vs Baseline
2.87×
+0.14 vs v2.2
AUC-ROC 0.83
Intervention ROI Score
4.2
+1.1 vs Q3
$4.20 saved/$1 spent

Churn Probability Distribution

Account count by 30-day churn probability score • Current portfolio of 1,100 active accounts

Segment Survival Probability Curves

Forecasted retention by segment over 90 days

Behavioral Decay Index

SMB segment showing elevated decay post-competitor launch

CSM Priority Queue

Top 10 at-risk accounts sorted by Days-to-Renewal × Risk Score • Auto-sync to Salesforce tasks

Account Segment MRR Churn Prob Days to Renewal Priority Top Risk Factor
TechFlow Industries Mid-Market $8,400 0.82 18 94.3 Support escalation spike
Cascade Logistics SMB $3,200 0.79 23 88.7 Feature adoption -62%
Horizon Medical Group Enterprise $24,500 0.71 29 83.2 Login frequency -41%
Pioneer Manufacturing Mid-Market $6,800 0.68 34 79.1 Seat utilization 38%
Quantum Analytics SMB $2,900 0.74 41 77.4 No API calls 21d
Silverline Consulting Mid-Market $7,600 0.66 38 74.8 Champion departed
Metro Property Mgmt SMB $1,850 0.69 44 72.6 Behavioral decay spike
Apex Financial Services Enterprise $31,200 0.58 27 69.3 Support ticket increase

Feature Adoption vs Churned Archetype

Current portfolio avg vs historical churned account profile

Support Escalation Frequency

90-day rolling average by segment

Intervention ROI Waterfall

Cumulative MRR saved by intervention type since model v2 deployment (Aug 2024)

Predicted Contraction MRR Trend

Rolling 90-day forecast showing impact of Flowmatic competitor launch

Risk Score Distribution by Segment

Current portfolio composition

Expansion Signal vs Churn Risk Matrix

Account positioning by upsell potential and retention risk • Bubble size = MRR