Rolling Forecast & Scenario Planning Control Tower

Summit Cloud Services · $320M ARR · Living forecast for base, upside, and downside scenarios

Last Lock
9 days ago
Weighted EBITDA Outlook
$142M
▲ $4.2M vs. last lock
Scenario Band Width
$18M
12.7% of base
Driver Changes (30d)
11
▲ 3 vs. target (8)
Forecast Lock Age
9d
Within 14d window
13-Week MAPE
5.4%
▼ 1.8pp vs. Q1
Sign-Off Complete
94%
Awaiting CFO

Scenario Toggle

All Scenarios
Base Only

Driver Sensitivity — Top 10 Impact

Recent Driver Assumption Changes

Driver From → To Scenario Owner
Churn Rate (W6) 2.1% → 2.8% Bear S. Patel
Sales Headcount 85 → 92 Bull J. Kim
Price Elasticity -1.2 → -1.4 Base M. Chen
AWS COGS/User $18 → $16 Bull R. Davis
Win Rate 26% → 24% Bear S. Patel
ACV Growth 12% → 14% Base J. Kim
Support Cost/Ticket $42 → $38 Base A. Lopez
NRR 112% → 108% Bear M. Chen

Backtest MAPE by Forecast Horizon

Revision Approval Cycle Time (Hours)

Capital Commitment Aligned to Active Scenario (%)

Bear
Base
Bull
Engineering
68%
92%
78%
Sales & Marketing
54%
82%
96%
Product
88%
94%
76%
Infrastructure
91%
98%
89%
Alert: Sales & Marketing capital commitment (54%) is not aligned with Bear scenario probability weight (28%). Consider budget reallocation or risk acceptance review.

Scenario Divergence & Model Health

Scenario Divergence Index (σ)
0.142
Standard deviation across scenarios — slightly elevated due to W6 churn assumption change in Bear
Driver Sensitivity Elasticity Score
1.84
Weighted average elasticity of top 10 drivers — within normal range (1.5–2.2)
Scenario Probability Weights
Bear 28%
Base 52%
Bull 20%