Predictability & Forecast Confidence Center

Aether Robotics Software Division • Q4 Release Tracking • Updated 2 hours ago

60 Days 90 Days By Sprint

P85 Forecast Exceeds SIGNAL Conference Deadline

Monte Carlo P85 delivery window: 13 weeks (2 weeks post-deadline). Recommend scope negotiation or dependency acceleration.

P50 Delivery
9 wks
Before deadline
P85 Delivery
13 wks
+2 wks breach
P95 Delivery
17 wks
+6 wks breach
Confidence Score
72
AMBER
Forecast Accuracy
74%
12 sprints
Scope Creep Index
18%
+3% vs avg
Sprint Goal Rate
82%
Last 6 sprints
Dependency Cycle
4.2 d
-0.8d
Throughput CV
0.34
Med variability
Item Survival
91%
Committed
Velocity Slope
+1.8
pts/sprint
Burndown Dev.
+12%
vs ideal

Monte Carlo Forecast Distribution (10,000 Simulations)

P50 Window
9 weeks
50% confidence
P85 Window
13 weeks
Exceeds deadline by 2 weeks
P95 Window
17 weeks
Conservative estimate

Forecast Accuracy Rate (Rolling 12 Sprints)

ACCURACY DROP DETECTED
Sprints 44-46 accuracy dropped to 58% during scope creep period. Recovery trend active.

Throughput Distribution (Last 60 Days)

Mean
23.4 pts
Coefficient of Variation
0.34

Scope Creep Index by Sprint

Current Index
18%
12-Sprint Avg
15%
Peak (Sprint 45)
31%

Team-Level Predictability Metrics

Team Velocity CV Forecast Acc. Scope Creep Goal Rate Status
Firmware 26.2 pts 0.38 68% 24% 75% AT RISK
Cloud Platform 29.1 pts 0.29 81% 12% 89% ON TRACK
Fleet Mgmt 21.8 pts 0.31 76% 19% 84% WATCH
Developer SDK 17.3 pts 0.42 71% 16% 78% WATCH

Dependency Resolution Cycle Time

Committed Item Survival Rate

Risk-Adjusted Forecast Factors

Throughput Stability 72/100
Scope Discipline 65/100
Dependency Management 84/100
Historical Accuracy 74/100
Team Capacity Volatility 88/100
Composite Confidence Score
72
/ 100 — Target: 85+