Scenario Planning & Budget Sensitivity Dashboard

Crestfield Media Group • Real-time scenario tracking & action triggers

Scenario Tracking Index
72.4
-8.2 vs Base
Tracking Downside
EBITDA Margin (Actual)
19.3%
+0.7% MoM
Above floor (18%)
Cost Flex Ratio
58.2%
Stable
Variable/Semi-var
Active Trigger Alerts
4
+3 since Jun
Downside triggers
WC Sensitivity (Down)
$4.2M
Impact
Net WC delta
Break-Even Revenue
$7.8M
-$0.4M MoM
Monthly threshold

Revenue Scenario Fan Chart — Actuals vs. Three Budget Paths

Actuals
Upside ($122M)
Base ($112M)
Downside ($98M)

Revenue Sensitivity by Driver (Dec YTD)

Volume decline (-$8.2M) offset by price realization (+$3.1M) and mix shift (+$1.4M). Net: -$3.7M vs. Base.

Cost Flex Ratio by Category

58.2% of cost base is variable or semi-variable. Content & Infrastructure highly flexible; G&A mostly fixed.

Contribution Margin by Business Segment (All Scenarios)

Enterprise
Base: 42% | Actual: 41%
SMB
Base: 38% | Actual: 31%
International
Base: 36% | Actual: 35%
Prof Services
Base: 51% | Actual: 49%

Budget Scenario Master Comparison Table

Budget Category Annual Budget (Base) YTD Actual Upside YTD Downside YTD Variance (Act vs Base)
Total Revenue $112.0M $108.3M $115.2M $97.8M -$3.7M
Enterprise $54.0M $53.1M $58.2M $49.2M -$0.9M
SMB $31.0M $27.8M $33.1M $24.2M -$3.2M
International $18.0M $18.6M $19.8M $16.2M +$0.6M
Prof Services $9.0M $8.8M $10.1M $8.2M -$0.2M
Total OpEx $85.1M $87.4M $89.6M $79.8M +$2.3M
EBITDA $26.9M $20.9M $25.6M $18.0M -$6.0M
EBITDA Margin 24.0% 19.3% 22.2% 18.4% -4.7pp

Scenario Trigger Alert Status

Revenue < 92% of Base
SMB segment trigger
ACTIVE
New Logo Volume -25%
Downside scenario
ACTIVE
EBITDA Margin < 20%
YTD tracking
ACTIVE
OpEx > 78% of Revenue
Cost control threshold
ACTIVE
Cash < $12M Floor
Treasury trigger
INACTIVE

Committed vs. Discretionary Spend by Dept

Marketing and R&D have highest discretionary ratio; G&A and Sales mostly committed (headcount, SaaS).

Rolling 13-Week Cash Scenario

Base scenario projects $18.2M cash at week 13; downside dips to $14.1M (above $12M floor).

Forecast Accuracy by Revenue Driver (MAPE)

New logo volume MAPE spiked to 14.8% post-algorithm change (June). Price realization remains accurate at 3.2%.

Action Menu Impact Simulator — Pre-Approved Downside Levers

Freeze Discretionary
$2.8M annual • 2.5pp margin
Pause Hiring
$1.9M annual • 1.7pp margin
Cut Travel 50%
$0.6M annual • 0.5pp margin
Renegotiate Vendors
$1.2M annual • 1.1pp margin