Revenue Forecasting & Deal Velocity

Vantage Goods LLC · June 1–30, 2025 · Day 18 of 30

Forecasted GMV Attainment
81.4%
-15.6pp vs target
30-Day Revenue Run Rate
$142K
+8.2% MoM
Velocity Decay Index
1.42
High decay
Weighted Pipeline GMV
$86K
+12% WoW
Average Order Value
$47.20
+3.1%
TACoS Ratio
16.8%
Below 18% target

Forecast Attainment Bridge — June 2025

Velocity Decay by Category — 90-Day Trend

Inventory Coverage vs. Demand

Office Supplies 14 days
7 SKUs in deficit
Outdoor Recreation 22 days
Healthy coverage
Seasonal Items 8 days
Critical restock needed
Demand Forecast Gap
-$28.4K
Lost revenue if not restocked by June 24

AOV Trend — 90 Days

Seasonal Index Deviation

June Expected 1.18
June Actual 1.09
Deviation -7.6%
Outdoor Recreation underperforming seasonal baseline by 11.2pp

Return-Adjusted Net Revenue

June MTD
$84.2K
+6.8% vs May
Gross Revenue $95.6K
Returns -$11.4K
Net/Gross Ratio 88.1%

Velocity Decay & Forecast by Top SKU

SKU / ASIN Category VDI 30D Rev Forecast Inv Days Status
B09KT22R84 Outdoor 1.68 $18.2K $22.1K 9 Deficit
B08XPL4M39 Office 1.54 $14.8K $17.9K 11 Deficit
B07QRGW5TN Outdoor 1.21 $12.4K $14.2K 16 Watch
B09M8YL3KP Office 0.92 $11.6K $12.8K 28 Healthy
B08Y5NQT2W Office 1.47 $9.8K $11.2K 8 Deficit
B07W8KLQ3M Outdoor 0.88 $8.9K $9.4K 31 Healthy
B09NKTP4LR Office 1.18 $7.2K $8.1K 19 Watch
B08HRMT6YL Outdoor 0.95 $6.8K $7.3K 24 Healthy

Weighted Pipeline GMV by Stage (B2B)

Stage Conversion Rate by Deal Type

Enterprise Deal 42%
Mid-Market 68%
SMB Deal 81%
Retail Partner 54%
Overall Pipeline Conversion
61.3%
Close Rate vs. Target
+3.8pp

Cohort GMV Ramp vs. Plan — Q2 2025 Cohorts

30-Day Revenue Run Rate by Channel

Ad Spend to Revenue Ratio (TACoS)

Ad Spend MTD
$16.0K
ROAS
5.98x