RFM & Purchase Behavior Analytics

Marisol & Co. · DTC Premium Home Goods · $48M ARR · 210K Loyalty Members

Goal: Recover 420 At-Risk accounts to Loyal segment within 90 days via margin-positive win-back offers

Champions

18.2%

+2.1pp

At-Risk

14.3%

+3.4pp

Migration Rate (MoM)

9.2%

847 Champion→At-Risk

Margin Index

1.14

-0.08 vs Q3

Promo ROI

2.8×

+0.4× MoM

RFM Matrix – Monetary Value

R5 (0-30d)

$142

$286

$524

$892

$1.4K

R4 (31-60d)

$98

$218

$402

$738

$1.2K

R3 (61-90d)

$74

$164

$318

$594

$982

R2 (91-180d)

$52

$124

$246

$468

$782

R1 (181+d)

$38

$92

$186

$342

$588

Cell values: avg monetary (margin-adj) per customer in R×F bucket

Segment Migration Flow (Jan)

Top 10 At-Risk Accounts (Highest Prior Value)

Customer ID	Last Purchase	Frequency (12mo)	LTV (margin-adj)	Top Category	Churn Prob (60d)	Action
CST-48291	94 days ago	18×	$8,420	Textiles	64%	Win-back 15%
CST-52104	87 days ago	22×	$7,982	Ceramics	58%	Win-back 15%
CST-39847	102 days ago	16×	$7,154	Lighting	72%	Win-back 20%
CST-61205	79 days ago	14×	$6,892	Furniture	51%	Monitor
CST-44738	91 days ago	20×	$6,548	Textiles	67%	Win-back 15%
CST-57392	106 days ago	12×	$6,214	Decor	76%	Win-back 20%
CST-29104	84 days ago	17×	$5,982	Bath	61%	Win-back 15%
CST-73482	98 days ago	19×	$5,726	Kitchen	69%	Win-back 15%
CST-81047	77 days ago	11×	$5,492	Outdoor	48%	Monitor
CST-65219	112 days ago	13×	$5,184	Textiles	81%	Win-back 25%

Recency Decay by Cohort (90d)

Promo Response Rate by RFM Tier

Category Affinity by Segment

Champions

Textiles34%

Ceramics28%

Lighting18%

Furniture12%

Other8%

Loyal

Decor31%

Kitchen26%

Bath19%

Textiles15%

Other9%

At-Risk

Outdoor29%

Furniture24%

Lighting21%

Decor16%

Other10%

Herfindahl Concentration Index

Champions:0.28

Loyal:0.24

At-Risk:0.22