Claims Severity & Reserving Intelligence

Summit General Insurance · Multi-line Carrier · 142,000 Open Claims

North-star: Reserve Adequacy Ratio within ±3% of actuarial best estimate

Avg Incurred Severity
$18,420
↑9.0% YoY
Dev Factor 12→24M
1.14
↑0.03
Reserve Adequacy Ratio
97.2%
-2.8%
Litigation Rate
12.0%
+4.0pp
Days to First Contact
2.8
↓0.4d
Subrogation Recovery
6.8%
↑1.2pp
Reserve Strengthen Req.
$6.8M
2023 AY
Closed w/ Supplement
18.2%
↑3.1pp
CAT Severity Index
124
+24 vs base
Adjuster Productivity
11.2
↑0.9

Average Severity Trend by Cause of Loss (36 Months)

Development Factor Heatmap by Accident Year

AY
12-24
24-36
36-48
48-60
60-72
2023
1.18
—
—
—
—
2022
1.14
1.09
—
—
—
2021
1.11
1.08
1.05
—
—
2020
1.10
1.07
1.04
1.03
—
2019
1.09
1.06
1.03
1.02
1.01
>1.15
1.10–1.15
<1.10

IBNR Bridge — 2023 Accident Year

Top 20 Severity Outliers (Auto BI)

Claim ID Incurred Age (Days) Territory Litigation Adjuster Status
CLM-2023-48291 $284,200 142 TX-Dallas Yes R. Martinez CRITICAL
CLM-2023-51047 $267,800 189 TX-Houston Yes K. Chen CRITICAL
CLM-2023-44982 $241,600 203 CA-Los Angeles Yes J. Williams WATCH
CLM-2023-50126 $228,400 167 FL-Miami No L. Patel WATCH
CLM-2023-47813 $219,700 124 TX-Austin Yes R. Martinez CRITICAL
CLM-2022-61204 $206,500 412 NY-New York Yes M. Johnson WATCH
CLM-2023-49382 $198,300 95 CA-San Diego No J. Williams NORMAL
CLM-2023-52904 $187,900 78 TX-Dallas Yes K. Chen WATCH

IBNR vs. Case Reserve Variance

Litigation Rate by Line of Business

CAT Severity Index
124
Base = 100
Closed w/ Supplement
18.2%
+3.1pp YoY
Subrogation Recovery
6.8%
+1.2pp YoY

Reserve Strengthening Required — 2023 AY Breakdown

Days to First Contact (Median)

Actuarial Sign-off Status
PENDING REVIEW Q1 2024 Loss Triangle · Expected Sign-off: April 12, 2024
Auto BI severity increase driven by TX corridor litigation surge; recommend claims handling protocol review and early legal referral for claims >$50K incurred. IBNR shortfall on 2023 AY requires $6.8M reserve strengthening before Q2 close.
Last updated: 3 hours ago