Cash Flow Scenario Forecasting & Sensitivity Dashboard
Vantage Specialty Chemicals • 90-Day Planning Horizon • Updated Daily
Probability-Weighted Cash Position (90D)
$14.7M
▲ $1.6M buffer to covenant
Revenue Sensitivity Coefficient
$0.73
Per $1M revenue variance
Collection Rate (Actual vs. Assumption)
87.8%
▼ 3.7pp vs. 91.5% plan
OPEX Run-Rate Variance
+4.2%
+$550K over 8 weeks
Capex Phasing Variance
+$680K
Pulled forward W9-10
Scenario Divergence Index
38%
Upside/downside spread
90-Day Scenario Cash Position Forecast
Shaded region: P10-P90 confidence band. Red line: $8M debt covenant threshold.
Driver Sensitivity Analysis
Collection Rate: Assumption vs. Actuals
Driver Forecast Bias Heatmap (Rolling 8 Weeks)
W-8
W-7
W-6
W-5
W-4
W-3
W-2
W-1
Revenue
+1.2%
+0.8%
+2.4%
+1.1%
-0.3%
+0.9%
+1.6%
+2.1%
Collections
-4.1%
-3.8%
-4.5%
-3.2%
-3.9%
-4.2%
-3.6%
-3.7%
OPEX
+3.1%
+3.8%
+4.5%
+4.9%
+5.2%
+4.1%
+3.9%
+4.2%
Capex
-1.2%
+0.6%
-0.8%
+1.4%
+12.3%
+8.7%
+3.2%
+2.8%
Green: within ±2% | Yellow: ±2-5% | Red: >5% bias. Collections showing persistent overoptimism.
Days of Liquidity by Scenario
Interest Rate Sensitivity on Variable Debt
Scenario Assumption Archive (Last 12 Weeks)
| Week |
Revenue Assumption |
Collection Rate |
OPEX Run-Rate |
Capex Commitment |
Base Case Cash (90D) |
Downside Cash |
| W-12 | $23.8M | 92.5% | $6.2M | $1.8M | $15.9M | $8.4M |
| W-11 | $24.1M | 92.3% | $6.3M | $1.9M | $15.7M | $8.3M |
| W-10 | $23.9M | 91.8% | $6.4M | $2.2M | $15.3M | $7.9M |
| W-9 | $24.3M | 91.7% | $6.5M | $2.5M | $14.9M | $7.5M |
| W-8 | $24.0M | 91.5% | $6.6M | $2.3M | $15.1M | $7.7M |
| W-7 | $23.7M | 91.4% | $6.5M | $2.1M | $15.4M | $8.0M |
| W-6 | $24.2M | 91.2% | $6.7M | $2.2M | $15.0M | $7.6M |
| W-5 | $23.8M | 90.8% | $6.8M | $2.0M | $14.8M | $7.4M |
| W-4 | $24.1M | 90.5% | $6.9M | $2.1M | $14.5M | $7.2M |
| W-3 | $23.9M | 89.9% | $6.9M | $2.3M | $14.6M | $7.3M |
| W-2 | $24.0M | 89.2% | $7.0M | $2.4M | $14.8M | $7.2M |
| W-1 (Current) | $24.2M | 87.8% | $7.1M | $2.6M | $14.7M | $7.1M |
Collection rate deterioration and capex acceleration compressed downside scenario to covenant threshold.
Rolling Forecast Revision Magnitude (Week-over-Week)
Spikes in W-9 and W-10 driven by capex pull-forward events requiring full model refresh.