Recurring Billing Health

LearnPath EdTech · 420K Subscribers

Renewal Success Rate
91.6%
+1.2%
Involuntary Churn
2.3%
-0.4%
Dunning Recovery
34.0%
+3.1%
Card Updater Hit
72.0%
stable
MRR at Risk
$248K
38K cards expire Jul

Renewal Success Rate by Acquisition Cohort & Month

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q1 2023
94.2
93.8
94.1
92.3
92.9
92.7
88.9
91.5
92.1
93.4
93.7
94.0
Q2 2023
93.9
93.5
92.8
92.5
92.3
91.8
87.6
90.9
91.6
93.1
93.4
93.8
Q3 2023
93.6
92.9
92.6
92.2
91.9
91.4
86.8
90.3
91.2
92.8
93.2
93.6
Q4 2023
93.3
92.7
92.4
92.0
91.6
91.1
85.9
89.8
90.8
92.5
93.0
93.3
Q1 2024
93.1
92.5
92.1
91.8
91.3
90.8
88.9
90.5
91.4
92.3
92.8
93.2
July 2024 card expiry wall impacted all cohorts. Recovery actions increased Aug-Dec rates.

Retry Attempt Success Rate

Retry #3 recovers 22% of failures vs 8% on retry #1

Card Expiry Exposure (Next 90 Days)

Active Dunning Cohort — Subscriptions at Risk

Subscriber ID Plan MRR Failed Date Retry Dunning Stage Card Status Action
LP-48291Annual Pro$1992024-06-283/4Email 2Expired 07/24
LP-52103Monthly Plus$492024-06-302/4Email 1Declined NSF
LP-63847Annual Pro$1992024-06-274/4FinalExpired 06/24
LP-71924Monthly Basic$192024-07-011/4Email 1Active
LP-58392Annual Plus$992024-06-293/4Email 2Expired 07/24
LP-44821Monthly Pro$792024-06-262/4Email 1Declined Fraud
LP-39547Annual Basic$592024-06-303/4Email 2Active
LP-67203Monthly Plus$492024-07-021/4Email 1Expired 07/24

Payment Failure Rate: Annual vs Monthly Plans

Annual prepay reduces payment failure 3.2pt vs monthly billing

Dunning Email Funnel to Recovery

Card Updater Hit Rate by Issuer

Visa78%
Mastercard74%
Amex69%
Discover62%

Chargeback Rate (Recurring)

0.18%
-0.03% vs last month
Well below 0.5% threshold

Avg Recovery Time

5.2 days
From first failure to success

MRR at Risk — Waterfall Analysis

Recovery Playbook Queue

38K cards expiring Jul
Send updater request batch
Retry #3 window
Schedule for 842 subs
Dunning Email 2
Send to 1,247 subs
Annual plan promo
Target high-risk monthly
Billing Engine: Stripe v2024.1 · Last Card Updater Sync: 2024-07-03 14:22 UTC
Data Refresh: Real-time Coverage: 420K Active Subs