Rolling Forecast Accuracy & Scenario Planning Control Tower

Clarion Analytics Inc. • FY2025 Q2 • Series C Data Infrastructure SaaS

ARR: $52.0M
Annual Budget: $48.0M
Headcount: 290
Last Refresh: 2025-01-15
North-Star Metric: Year-End EBITDA Landing Probability
73%
Probability of landing within board-approved ±3% range • Target: ≥85%
+8pp
vs Q1
Rolling Forecast MAPE
7.3%
-3.9pp
Quarterly Hit Rate
68%
-14pp L4Q
Assumption Accuracy
78.4
+5.2
Index (100 = perfect)
Scenario Spread (P10–P90)
$8.2M
Narrowing
Year-end EBITDA range
Budget Consumption
46.8%
On pace
vs 50% calendar (Q2)
Reforecast Cycle ROI
2.4%
+0.6pp
MAPE improvement / cycle
Downside Cash Impact
$3.2M
P10 scenario
Burn vs base case
Pipeline Coverage
2.8×
+0.3×
Next 2Q revenue fcst
Committed Cost MAPE
3.1%
-1.2pp
vs 9.8% variable
Forecast Convergence
4.2 wks
-1.8 wks
To 95% accuracy
Current EBITDA Fcst
$4.8M
Within range
Board target: $5.0M ±3%
Forecast Bias Score
-1.8%
Slight pessimism
Systematic under-fcst

Rolling Forecast Bias Score (MAPE by Category)

Forecast Vintage Convergence Curve

Rolling 4-Quarter Forecast Hit Rate

Year-End EBITDA Scenario Distribution (P10–P90)

P10 (Pessimistic) $1.6M
P50 (Base Case) $4.8M
P90 (Optimistic) $9.8M
Board Target Range: $4.85M–$5.15M

Budget Consumption Rate vs Calendar Pace

Revenue Forecast vs Pipeline Coverage Ratio

Q3 Forecast: $14.2M 2.8× Coverage
Committed: $5.1M Pipeline: $39.8M

Assumption Accuracy Master Table

Driver Assumption Category Forecast Actual YTD Variance Accuracy Status
New Logo ACV Revenue $8.4M $7.9M -5.9% 94.1 Good
Net Revenue Retention Revenue 112% 108% -3.6% 96.4 Good
Engineering Headcount R&D 118 112 -5.1% 94.9 Good
Sales & Marketing HC S&M 86 79 -8.1% 91.9 Fair
Cloud Infrastructure COGS $4.2M $4.6M +9.5% 90.5 Fair
CAC Payback Period S&M 14 mo 17 mo +21.4% 78.6 Fair
Churn Rate Revenue 4.2% 5.8% +38.1% 61.9 Weak
Sales Cycle Length S&M 92 days 68 days -26.1% 73.9 Fair

Reforecast Cycle ROI (Accuracy vs Time Invested)

Latest Cycle: 186 hours invested → 2.4% MAPE improvement
ROI trending upward as process matures

Committed vs Variable Cost Forecast Accuracy

Committed Costs (Payroll, Leases) 3.1% MAPE
Variable Costs (Marketing, Cloud) 9.8% MAPE

Action Required: Improve Churn Forecast Accuracy

Churn assumption accuracy at 61.9 — 16 points below threshold. Review retention cohort models and implement leading indicators (NPS, usage trends) into next reforecast cycle.