Attribution & Campaign Incrementality

Multi-touch path analysis, model comparison, and holdout lift evidence. Move budgets based on incrementality, not platform self-reporting.

Meridian HR Tech B2B • $290K/mo Ad Spend • Goal: Recover $180K/qtr pipeline

Attribution Divergence

34.2%

High delta

Assisted Conv. Value

$1.8M

+22% vs LC

Incremental Lift (Avg)

1.3x

Holdout iROAS

Platform vs Model Δ

-$420K

Over-credited

Avg Path Length

4.2

Touches

Cannibalization Index

8.4%

Branded erosion

Attribution Model Comparison by Channel

Last-Click

Data-Driven

Linear

Incremental Lift by Channel (Holdout)

Channel	Platform iROAS	Holdout iROAS	Delta
Meta Display	2.6x	1.1x	-1.5x
LinkedIn	1.8x	1.7x	-0.1x
Google Display	0.8x	2.0x	+1.2x
Paid Search	3.2x	2.9x	-0.3x
Programmatic	1.4x	1.5x	+0.1x

Top Converting Path Sequences

Path Sequence	Conversions	Avg ACV
Display → LinkedIn → Search → Direct	47	$42.3K
Search → Display → LinkedIn → Search	38	$38.7K
LinkedIn → Search → Direct	34	$35.2K
Display → Search → LinkedIn → Direct	29	$41.8K
Prog → Display → Search → LinkedIn	24	$39.4K
Search → LinkedIn → Search → Direct	22	$36.9K

Assisted Conversion Value by Channel

Time-to-Convert by Path Length

Budget-to-Attribution Gap Analysis

Channel	Budget %	LC Attribution %	DDA Attribution %	Gap (Budget vs DDA)	Action
Meta Display	28%	34%	18%	-10%	Reduce
Google Display	12%	8%	24%	+12%	Increase
Paid Search	35%	42%	31%	-4%	Monitor
LinkedIn	18%	12%	21%	+3%	Increase
Programmatic	7%	4%	6%	-1%	Hold

Cross-Device Path Completion Rate

Desktop → Mobile 68.4%

Mobile → Desktop 52.1%

Desktop Only 42.7%

Mobile Only 38.2%

Tablet → Desktop 61.9%

Touchpoint Decay-Weighted ROI

Budget Reallocation Scenario (15% Shift)

Channel	Current Budget	Proposed Budget	Change	Expected Incremental Rev
Meta Display	$81.2K	$64.0K	-$17.2K	-$18.9K
Google Display	$34.8K	$52.2K	+$17.4K	+$34.8K
LinkedIn	$52.2K	$60.9K	+$8.7K	+$14.8K
Paid Search	$101.5K	$92.8K	-$8.7K	-$25.2K
Programmatic	$20.3K	$20.3K	$0	$0
Total	$290K	$290K	$0	+$5.5K/mo

Projected Quarterly Recovery: $16.5K from reallocation alone. Combined with path optimization and holdout-validated channels, targeting $180K/qtr pipeline recovery.