Peak Delivery Capacity & Demand Forecasting

HolidayHub Gifts – Q4 Peak Season Control Center

Forecast MAPE
8.4%
-2.1pp vs Wk47
Carrier Utilization
94%
+11pp vs Plan
Peak OTDR
88.1%
-6.9pp vs Baseline
Backlog Hours
6.2h
+3.1h vs Target
Expedite Spend
$128K
Week 48

14-Day Volume Forecast vs. Capacity

Carrier Commitment Utilization

FedEx Ground 98%
UPS Ground 96%
Regional LSO 87%
USPS Parcel 74%

Hub Throughput Ceiling (orders/hour)

Forecast Accuracy by FC & Channel

Fulfillment Center Channel MAPE Bias % Wk48 Forecast Wk48 Actual
Columbus FC Direct 12.8% -22% 18,400 22,448
Columbus FC Marketplace 6.2% +5% 9,200 8,740
Memphis FC Direct 5.4% -3% 14,800 15,244
Memphis FC Marketplace 9.1% -12% 7,600 8,512
Phoenix FC Direct 7.2% +8% 11,200 10,304
Phoenix FC Marketplace 4.8% -2% 5,400 5,508
Blended All 8.4% -9% 66,600 70,756

Peak OTDR vs. Baseline

Promotional Lift Factor by Category

Cut-Off Recommendations

TIGHTEN IMMEDIATELY
Columbus FC
11:00 AM → 9:00 AM
MONITOR
Memphis FC
12:00 PM (hold)
NORMAL
Phoenix FC
2:00 PM (hold)

Backlog Hours to Clear

6.2h
at current throughput
Columbus FC 9.4h
Memphis FC 4.8h
Phoenix FC 3.1h

Expedite Freight Trend

Week 48 Total
$128K

Capacity Breach Risk by Day

Mon Dec 2
98%
Tue Dec 3
96%
Wed Dec 4
89%
Thu Dec 5
91%
Fri Dec 6
94%
Sat Dec 7
82%
Sun Dec 8
68%

Overflow Carrier Status

OnTrac Express STANDBY
Capacity: 2,400/day
LaserShip Peak ACTIVE
Activated: Dec 1, 1,820 orders
DHL eComm Surge STANDBY
Capacity: 1,800/day
Promo calendar sync: Active (BF/CM events loaded)
Last model refresh: Dec 2, 10:42 AM EST