Attribution & Multi-Touch Path Analysis

Meridian SaaS · Q1 2024 (13 weeks) · Multi-model comparison reveals true channel value

Total Attributed Pipeline
$12.4M
+18.2% vs Q4
Model Divergence Score
24.3%
+7.1pp alert
Path Frequency Index
3.8x
Top cluster
Assisted Conv. Revenue
$7.9M
+22.4%
Avg. Time-to-Convert
42d
-6d faster
Reallocation Opportunity
$2.1M
15% of budget

Multi-Touch Conversion Paths (Top 5 Sequences)

Attribution Model Comparison (Pipeline Revenue)

Assisted vs. Last-Click Revenue Trend

Week 7: Paid Social CPM spike (+38%) due to competitor funding → 29% drop in assisted conversions

Channel Attribution Detail by Model

Channel Last-Click First-Touch Linear Position-Based Divergence Assist Rate Sat. Index
Paid Search $4.2M $2.1M $3.0M $3.4M High 41% 68% 0.82
Content Syndication $1.8M $3.5M $2.6M $2.9M Med 32% 84% 0.44
Webinars $2.3M $1.9M $2.4M $2.5M Low 12% 79% 0.58
Paid Social $1.6M $2.4M $1.9M $2.0M Med 24% 72% 0.91
Email Nurture $0.9M $0.7M $1.2M $1.1M Med 28% 91% 0.33
Display $1.4M $1.6M $1.2M $1.3M Low 16% 64% 1.07
Organic Social $0.2M $0.2M $0.1M $0.2M Low 9% 48% 0.21

Time-to-Convert by Path Cluster

Position-Based Credit Distribution

Cross-Device Path Rate

38.4% of paths span 2+ devices

Touchpoint Decay Velocity

Half-life: 18 days

Channel Saturation Index

Display1.07
Paid Social0.91
Paid Search0.82
Email Nurture0.33

Index >1.0 signals diminishing returns

Incremental Lift by Channel (Holdout-Adjusted)

Display shows 5.1% lift (below 8% threshold) despite $180K spend — reallocation candidate

Budget Reallocation Scenario ($2.1M Opportunity)

Channel Current Proposed Delta Proj. Impact
Paid Search $820K $680K -$140K -$280K pipe
Display $180K $90K -$90K -$130K pipe
Content Synd. $420K $550K +$130K +$520K pipe
Webinars $310K $380K +$70K +$350K pipe
Email Nurture $90K $120K +$30K +$180K pipe

Net projected pipeline increase: +$640K ARR (5.2% lift)

Key Insights & Actions

High-Velocity Path Identified
Content Synd → Webinar → Email → Paid Search converts in 34d (19% faster) with 4.2x higher close rate
Model Divergence Alert
Paid Search over-credited by 41% under last-click; true contribution closer to $3.0M per linear model
Saturation Risk
Display saturation index 1.07 signals diminishing returns; recommend 50% budget cut to Email/Webinars
Cross-Device Impact
38.4% of conversions span devices; mobile-first paths show 26% lower conversion but 22% faster velocity