VP Marketing Celeste Park
April 10, 2025 — Board meeting
new paid subscribers, Q1 2025
Plan: 52,000 | Variance: -21%
Underperformance concentrated in paid social; organic and referral beat plan.
| Metric | Plan | Actual | Variance | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impressions | 420M | 388M | -8% | Paid social CPM up 34% |
| Clicks | 3.1M | 2.6M | -16% | CTR held |
| Installs | 210K | 187K | -11% | Organic mix shift |
| Activation (Day-1) | 58% | 63% | +9% | Product improvement |
| Trial conversions | 22% | 24% | +9% | Paywall test win |
| Paid subs | 52K | 41.2K | -21% | Paid social miss |
12,400
installs vs. 8,000 plan (+55%)
Viral coefficient 1.4, CAC $3.20. Clear scale opportunity.
34,000
installs vs. 26,000 plan (+31%)
Zero incremental spend. Keyword expansion working.
+9pp
trial-to-paid conversion lift
Annual plan now 68% of mix. Ship to 100%.
Tightening creative targeting reduced audience match rates by ~40%.
4 new fintech competitors entered Q1, driving CPMs up 34% YoY.
Top-performing ad set hit frequency 9.4 by week 6; CTR declined 62%.
Our lowest-CAC channel is also our highest-LTV channel. We've been underinvesting in referral by a factor of eight.— Helio Q1 cohort analysis
Paid Social
Reduce by $420K
Influencer
Pause mid-tier, retain 3 top performers
Referral Infrastructure
$220K for mechanic upgrade
ASO / Content
$120K for keyword expansion
SEM
Increase $80K to capture fintech-adjacent intent
| Quarter | Original Plan | Revised Plan | Key Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Actual | 41.2K | 41.2K | — |
| Q2 | 68K | 61K | Referral ramp by Week 5 |
| Q3 | 74K | 71K | ASO compound |
| Q4 | 86K | 82K | Creative refresh + seasonal lift |
| FY 2025 | 269K | 255K | -5% vs. original |
Mechanic launch slips to Q3
-18K subs risk
Mitigation: parallel build tracks in progress
CPMs stay elevated (+34%)
-$310K efficiency loss
Mitigation: budget reallocation already initiated
Unexpected algorithm change
Unquantified
Mitigation: diversify keyword strategy
Effective April 15, 2025
Next board update: July 9, 2025